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2015 Toyota Owners 400 Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks – Top Sleepers at Richmond International Raceway: There was a stretch where Richmond was dominated by just a few drivers, and from the fall of 2006 through the 2011 season, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson combined to win 10 of the 11 races at the short track. However, the 0.75-mile oval has become tougher to predict in recent years with six different drivers winning the last six races. Meanwhile, the last three winners at Richmond were all first-time winner at the short track. With that in mind, you certainly can’t rule out somewhat of a surprise winner this weekend, and here is a closer look at a few sleeper drivers worth taking a chance on for Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400.

While he hasn’t been in victory lane at Richmond since early in his career, Ryan Newman always seems to be near the front at the track. After all, he has finished in the top 15 in 11 of his last 12 starts at the track, including seven straight. More importantly, Newman has eight top-10s at RIR during the same stretch, including three straight. Newman is basically a lock to be within striking distance this weekend.

It has certainly been a rough patch at Richmond for David Ragan, but his poor finishes at the track came while he was driving for an underfunded Front Row Motorsports team. On the flip side, he finished fourth in his final two starts at the track with Roush Fenway Racing, and he will have similar equipment to work with at the track this weekend as he subs for Kyle Busch in the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18. Don’t be surprised if he turns back the clock at Richmond this weekend.

In terms of overall numbers, Richmond still doesn’t rank among Matt Kenseth’s best tracks. However, he has been much better at the Richmond recently. Kenseth has four finishes of seventh or better in four of his last five starts at the short track, including three in his four starts since joining Joe Gibbs Racing. Kenseth is fresh off a short track win at Bristol last weekend, and he could make it back-to-back short track wins this weekend.

His hot start to the year came to an end during a wreck-filled weekend at Bristol last weekend, but Martin Truex Jr. has still finished in the top 10 in seven of the eight race so far in 2015. Meanwhile, he has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three races at Richmond, including last April when he made his first start at the track with Furniture Row Racing.

Although he is known for his road course racing prowess, A.J. Allmendinger has actually been solid at short tracks throughout his career, as well. At Richmond, he has finished in the Top 15 in six of his last eight starts, and he has three top-10s during the stretch, including a sixth-place last April in his first start at the track with JTG Daugherty Racing. The fact that he participated in the Goodyear tire test at the track shouldn’t hurt his chances either.

If you are looking for a serious sleeper this weekend, you may want to roll the dice on Danica Patrick. For one, she finished a career-best 16th in her most recent start at Richmond last fall. More importantly, she has shown tremendous growth at the short tracks in 2015. She has logged top-10s in both short track events, finishing seventh at Martinsville and ninth at Bristol last weekend.

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2015 2015 Toyota Owners 400 Prediction: Matt Kenseth to WIN at 10/1 odds at Bovada Sportsbook

Odds to win the 2015 Toyota Owners 400
Kevin Harvick 9/2
Brad Keselowski 6/1
Joey Logano 6/1
Kurt Busch 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Jeff Gordon 10/1
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kyle Larson 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
David Ragan 60/1
Tony Stewart 60/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Chase Elliott 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 300/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1